 Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики» Программа дисциплины «Форсайт-исследования» для направления 080200.68 «Менеджмент» подготовки магистра
National Research University Higher School of Economics
Nizhny Novgorod
Faculty of Management
Course Syllabus
“Foresight-study”
3 Credit Hours
080200.68 – Management
Master Program in Marketing
Prepared by:
Anna Trifilova, PhD
Fomenkov Denis, Candidate in Economics
Confirmed by Marketing Department «___»____________ 2013г.
Head of Marketing Department Fomenkov Denis _____________________
Recommended by Faculty of Management «___»_____________ 2013 г.
Dean Kuznecova Julia _________________________
Approved by UMS HRU HSE – Nizhny Novgorod «___»_____________2013г.
Chairman Prof. Buharov Valerij ______________________
Niznny Novgorod, 2013
1Course Description
Foresight is the act of looking to the future. This course helps you learn better global, business and personal foresight. This course will explore the big picture history of accelerating change from universal, historical and technological perspectives, and consider global trends that are affecting individuals, society, businesses and governments. Additionally, the course will examine how organizations make bets on the future, and gives the student a chance to explore career prospects in a variety of fields. Finally, discussion of how biology, psychology, community and culture help and hinder personal thinking about the future will be discussed. We will explore four fundamental foresight skills: creating the future (innovating products and services); discovering the future (models, trend identification and analysis); planning the future (developing shared goals and processes); and benefiting in the future (achieving measurable positive environmental, social, or economic results). Assignments will be personalized to your own foresight goals, and include brief readings, writing, discussions, presentations, visuals, film, podcasts and games.
A framework is then provided that includes a range of foresight tools and methods for forecasting future scenarios and analyzing implications of future change. The course challenges students to engage in the process of identifying and evaluating major issues and trends impacting society in the future and exploring potential business implications that can drive sustainable innovation. The course is designed to facilitate critical/analytical, systems, and creative thinking. Students apply these thinking skills and the foresight framework in a semester-long team project on a topic of their choosing that combines an issue facing the world today with business opportunities and impacts thereon.
2Course Goal and Objectives
Change occurs in linear (continuous) and non-linear (disruptive) forms and creates opportunities for business through early identification of emerging societal problems and anticipation of their implications and potential solutions. The first step in defining preferred solutions is awareness; foresight can be developed into a core competency enabling leaders to plan for and create positive change in the future. Thus, the overall course objectives are as follows:
Demonstrate an awareness of important issues and trends affecting society, including issues related to sustainability.
Research specific responses and intervention to these issues and trends by the government, business, NGOs, think-tanks, and other organizations.
Develop framing and scanning skills to see and understand “weak signals” of emerging change and its implications.
Apply the methodologies and tools used by organizations to identify trends, consider the implications of change, plan for alternative futures and suggest solutions leading to preferred futures.
Demonstrate various types of thinking skills, including critical/analytical thinking, systems thinking, creative thinking and visioning skills, which are critical in effectively addressing complex problems.
Produce a well-reasoned foresight project that (1) addresses a major societal issue,(2) considers trends and future implications for society and business, and (3) suggests appropriate solutions, in light of moral and ethical concerns.
3Компетенции обучающегося, формируемые в результате освоения дисциплины
В результате освоения дисциплины студент осваивает следующие компетенции:
Компетенция
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Код
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Дескрипторы – основные признаки освоения (показатели достижения результата)
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Формы и методы обучения, способствующие формированию и развитию компетенции
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Способен использовать методы количественного и качественного анализа и моделирования, теоретического и экспериментального исследования в сфере управления
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ПК-13
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Владеет инструментами количественного и качественного анализа в области форсайт-исследований для повышения эффективности принимаемых решений.
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Традиционные лекции, дискуссии, кейсы, ролевые игры, проектные задания, участие практиков в семинарах, проектные работы.
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Способен разрабатывать корпоративную стратегию, стратегию бизнеса и функциональные стратегии организации
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ПК-21
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Понимает вклад результатов форсайт-исследований в разработку корпоративных и функциональных стратегий.
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Традиционные лекции, дискуссии, кейсы, ролевые игры, проектные задания, участие практиков в семинарах, проектные работы.
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Способен находить и оценивать новые рыночные возможности, формировать и оценивать бизнес-идеи, разрабатывать бизнес-планы создания нового бизнеса
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ПК-25
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Используя технологии форсайт-исследований способен находить появляющиеся предпринимательские возможности.
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Традиционные лекции, дискуссии, кейсы, ролевые игры, проектные задания, участие практиков в семинарах, проектные работы.
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Способен выявлять данные, необходимые для решения поставленных управленческих и предпринимательских задач; осуществлять сбор данных и их обработку
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ПК-26
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Способен сформулировать требования к данным, необходимым для проведения форсайт-исследования, и осуществить сбор необходимых данных.
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Традиционные лекции, дискуссии, кейсы, ролевые игры, проектные задания, участие практиков в семинарах, проектные работы.
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Способен представлять результаты проведенного исследования в виде отчета по консультационному проекту в сфере менеджмента
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ПК-29
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Владеет навыками представления результатов проведенного форсайт-исследования
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Проектные задания, участие практиков в семинарах, проектные работы.
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4Topics covered
№
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Название раздела
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Всего часов
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Аудиторные часы
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Самостоя тельная работа
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Лекции
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Семинары
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Практические занятия
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1
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Introduction to Foresight
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2
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4
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10
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2
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Global Challenges and State of the Future
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2
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6
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14
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3
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Scanning and Changes
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2
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4
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10
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4
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Foresight Tools and Methods
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2
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6
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14
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5
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Trend Analysis and Forecasting
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2
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4
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10
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6
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Scenario Development Methods
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2
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4
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10
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12
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28
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68
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5Формы контроля знаний студентов
Тип контроля
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Форма контроля
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1 год
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Параметры **
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1
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2
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3
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4
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Текущий
(неделя)
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Контрольная работа
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Эссе
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Реферат
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Коллоквиум
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Домашнее задание
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6
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Students will be required to scan for relevant news or events that are occurring in the world.
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Итоговый
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Зачет
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Each team will write one paper and present a visual version of that paper to the class. There will also be a public presentation at the end of the semester. The paper must be twenty-five to thirty double-spaced pages in length, plus supporting exhibits.
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Онакопленная= 0,2* Одом.зад + 0,4* Оауд + 0,4* Осам.работа
Орезульт = 0,6* Онакопл + 0,4 *·Озач
6Outline of Lectures and Readings
Topic 1. Introduction to Foresight
Insights About the future.
Dynamics of change
New perspectives
Future risks & opportunities
Strategic options
System capabilities
Stakeholders views
Long term thinking
Awareness of challenges
Foresight & learning culture
Reading
Anderson, S. (2012). Foresight 2020: A Futurist Explores the Trends Transforming Tomorrow (1 edition.). Beaver’s Pond Press.
Barker, D., & Smith, D. J. H. (1995). Technology foresight using roadmaps. Long Range Planning, 28(2), 21–28. doi:10.1016/0024-6301(95)98586-H
Bengisu, M., & Nekhili, R. (2006). Forecasting emerging technologies with the aid of science and technology databases. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73(7), 835–844. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2005.09.001
Blind, K., Cuhls, K., & Grupp, H. (1999). Current Foresight Activities in. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 60(1), 15–35. doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(98)00021-3
Burrows, M. (2012). Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds. US National Intelligence Council.
Topic 2. Global Challenges and State of the Future
Structuring Dialogue on Exploration: Scenario Debate
Assessment of visions
The cost of not considering alternative futures
Individualisation
Cultural diversity
Mobility
Consumer “schizophrenia”
Reading
Coates, V., Farooque, M., Klavans, R., Lapid, K., Linstone, H. A., Pistorius, C., & Porter, A. L. (2001). On the Future of Technological Forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 67(1), 1–17. doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(00)00122-0
Foresight and Innovation How Companies Are Coping With the Future. (2013). Palgrave Macmillan.
Georghiou, L. (2008). The handbook of technology foresight: concepts and practice. Cheltenham, UK: Elgar.
Hines, A., Bishop, P. J., & Social Technologies, L. (2006). Thinking about the future: guidelines for strategic foresight. Washington, DC: Social Technologies.
Katt, S., & Evers, F. (2013). Foresight is Flawless (Undercover Series Book 3). Random Distraction.
Topic 3 Scanning and Changes
Assessment of visions
The Strategic Landscape
Identification processes at the firm level
Linking National Foresight to Company Action
Reading
Georghiou, L. (2008). The handbook of technology foresight: concepts and practice. Cheltenham, UK: Elgar.
Hines, A., Bishop, P. J., & Social Technologies, L. (2006). Thinking about the future: guidelines for strategic foresight. Washington, DC: Social Technologies.
Katt, S., & Evers, F. (2013). Foresight is Flawless (Undercover Series Book 3). Random Distraction.
Kuwahara, T. (1999). Technology Forecasting Activities in Japan. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 60(1), 5–14. doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(98)00048-1
Loveridge, D. (2009). Foresight: the art and science of anticipating the future. New York: Routledge.
Marcus, A. A. (2009). Strategic foresight: a new look at scenarios. New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan.
Suddendorf, T., & Corballis, M. C. (2007). The evolution of foresight: What is mental time travel, and is it unique to humans? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 30(03). doi:10.1017/S0140525X07001975
WorldFuture, W., Cynthia G (Ed.). (2005). Foresight, innovation, and strategy: toward a wiser future. Bethesda, Md.: World Future Society.
Topic 4 Foresight Tools and Methods
Selection criteria
Four key distinctions
Exploratory Methods
Normative methods
Quantitative methods
Qualitative methods
Road Mapping
Scenario analysis
Reading
Bengisu, M., & Nekhili, R. (2006). Forecasting emerging technologies with the aid of science and technology databases. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73(7), 835–844. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2005.09.001
Blind, K., Cuhls, K., & Grupp, H. (1999). Current Foresight Activities in. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 60(1), 15–35. doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(98)00021-3
Burrows, M. (2012). Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds. US National Intelligence Council.
Coates, V., Farooque, M., Klavans, R., Lapid, K., Linstone, H. A., Pistorius, C., & Porter, A. L. (2001). On the Future of Technological Forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 67(1), 1–17. doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(00)00122-0
Foresight and Innovation How Companies Are Coping With the Future. (2013). Palgrave Macmillan.
Georghiou, L. (2008). The handbook of technology foresight: concepts and practice. Cheltenham, UK: Elgar.
Hines, A., Bishop, P. J., & Social Technologies, L. (2006). Thinking about the future: guidelines for strategic foresight. Washington, DC: Social Technologies.
Topic 5 Trend Analysis and Forecasting
Mega trends
Technology trends
Economic trends
Industry trends
Market trends
Reading
Hines, A., Bishop, P. J., & Social Technologies, L. (2006). Thinking about the future: guidelines for strategic foresight. Washington, DC: Social Technologies.
Katt, S., & Evers, F. (2013). Foresight is Flawless (Undercover Series Book 3). Random Distraction.
Kuwahara, T. (1999). Technology Forecasting Activities in Japan. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 60(1), 5–14. doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(98)00048-1
Loveridge, D. (2009). Foresight: the art and science of anticipating the future. New York: Routledge.
Marcus, A. A. (2009). Strategic foresight: a new look at scenarios. New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan.
Topic 6 Scenario Development Methods
A typology of scenario characteristics
Specifying Assumptions
Design of the scenario process
Content of the scenarios
The goals of scenario studies
Sensitivity analysis
Contingency plan
The levels and focus of institution-based scenarios
Reading
Barker, D., & Smith, D. J. H. (1995). Technology foresight using roadmaps. Long Range Planning, 28(2), 21–28. doi:10.1016/0024-6301(95)98586-H
Bengisu, M., & Nekhili, R. (2006). Forecasting emerging technologies with the aid of science and technology databases. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73(7), 835–844. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2005.09.001
Blind, K., Cuhls, K., & Grupp, H. (1999). Current Foresight Activities in. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 60(1), 15–35. doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(98)00021-3
Burrows, M. (2012). Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds. US National Intelligence Council.
Coates, V., Farooque, M., Klavans, R., Lapid, K., Linstone, H. A., Pistorius, C., & Porter, A. L. (2001). On the Future of Technological Forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 67(1), 1–17. doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(00)00122-0
Foresight and Innovation How Companies Are Coping With the Future. (2013). Palgrave Macmillan.
Georghiou, L. (2008). The handbook of technology foresight: concepts and practice. Cheltenham, UK: Elgar.
Hines, A., Bishop, P. J., & Social Technologies, L. (2006). Thinking about the future: guidelines for strategic foresight. Washington, DC: Social Technologies.
Katt, S., & Evers, F. (2013). Foresight is Flawless (Undercover Series Book 3). Random Distraction.
7Teaching Strategies: Activities and Assignments
Course is taught through a combination of classroom lectures, in-class exercises, classroom discussions, Socratic questioning, video illustrations, and guest lectures. Class plans for each class day will be posted the week prior to each class. Each assignment also has a separate elaborated posting. The reading assignments and any assigned homework should be completed prior to class, and you should be prepared to discuss the material covered in the readings on the date indicated on the syllabus.
8Reading
Anderson, S. (2012). Foresight 2020: A Futurist Explores the Trends Transforming Tomorrow (1 edition.). Beaver’s Pond Press.
Barker, D., & Smith, D. J. H. (1995). Technology foresight using roadmaps. Long Range Planning, 28(2), 21–28. doi:10.1016/0024-6301(95)98586-H
Bengisu, M., & Nekhili, R. (2006). Forecasting emerging technologies with the aid of science and technology databases. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73(7), 835–844. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2005.09.001
Blind, K., Cuhls, K., & Grupp, H. (1999). Current Foresight Activities in. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 60(1), 15–35. doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(98)00021-3
Burrows, M. (2012). Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds. US National Intelligence Council.
Coates, V., Farooque, M., Klavans, R., Lapid, K., Linstone, H. A., Pistorius, C., & Porter, A. L. (2001). On the Future of Technological Forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 67(1), 1–17. doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(00)00122-0
Foresight and Innovation How Companies Are Coping With the Future. (2013). Palgrave Macmillan.
Georghiou, L. (2008). The handbook of technology foresight: concepts and practice. Cheltenham, UK: Elgar.
Hines, A., Bishop, P. J., & Social Technologies, L. (2006). Thinking about the future: guidelines for strategic foresight. Washington, DC: Social Technologies.
Katt, S., & Evers, F. (2013). Foresight is Flawless (Undercover Series Book 3). Random Distraction.
Kuwahara, T. (1999). Technology Forecasting Activities in Japan. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 60(1), 5–14. doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(98)00048-1
Loveridge, D. (2009). Foresight: the art and science of anticipating the future. New York: Routledge.
Marcus, A. A. (2009). Strategic foresight: a new look at scenarios. New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan.
Suddendorf, T., & Corballis, M. C. (2007). The evolution of foresight: What is mental time travel, and is it unique to humans? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 30(03). doi:10.1017/S0140525X07001975
WorldFuture, W., Cynthia G (Ed.). (2005). Foresight, innovation, and strategy: toward a wiser future. Bethesda, Md.: World Future Society.
Young, K. and E. &. (2012). Global Banking 2020: Foresight & Insights (Enhanced Version). Knowledge@Wharton.
Jerome Glenn, et al, 2012 State of the Future (on reserve and available for purchase from The Millennium Project – www.stateofthefuture.org)
Edward Cornish, Futuring: The Exploration of the Future (on reserve)
Edie Weiner & Arnold Brown, FutureThink: How to Think Clearly in a Time of Change (on reserve and copies available to borrow for the semester)
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