Программа по формированию навыков безопасного поведения на дорогах и улицах «Добрая дорога детства» 2
Скачать 4.49 Mb.
|
Оцененные коэффициенты: Коэффициент Значение t-Статистика Вероятность Стандартная ошибка A1 0,03 2,80 0,01 0,01 A2 35,61 7,42 0,00 4,80 A3 -7,28 -4,58 0,00 1,59 A4 0,61 8,86 0,00 0,07 A0 -277,41 -1,59 0,12 174,10 Статистика: R2 0,99 AdjR2 0,99 DW 1,35 Fstat 2 306,96 2.4.5. Уравнение: PRIVATE COSUMPTION_BE PRIVATE CONS.OR HH CONS. EXPEND. INCLU. NPI SERV HH|96F.. PRIVATE CONSUMPTION|Belarus|Flow|National Accounts|HOUSEH.CONS.EXPEND.,INCL.NPISHS|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Миллиард единиц национальной валюты[t] = 1.06 * (power(ratioYoY(IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES|98C.. IMPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES|Belarus|Flow|National Accounts|IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Миллиард единиц национальной валюты[t]), 0.33) + ((100 + WAGE RATES OR EARNINGS|65.XX WAGES % CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS PERIOD|Belarus|Average|Labor Market (Employment, Unemployment, wages and earnings)|WAGES % CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS PERIOD|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Percent per annum[t]) * (100 + WAGE RATES OR EARNINGS|65.XX WAGES % CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS PERIOD|Belarus|Average|Labor Market (Employment, Unemployment, wages and earnings)|WAGES % CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS PERIOD|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Percent per annum[t-1]) * (100 + WAGE RATES OR EARNINGS|65.XX WAGES % CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS PERIOD|Belarus|Average|Labor Market (Employment, Unemployment, wages and earnings)|WAGES % CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS PERIOD|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Percent per annum[t-2]) * (100 + WAGE RATES OR EARNINGS|65.XX WAGES % CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS PERIOD|Belarus|Average|Labor Market (Employment, Unemployment, wages and earnings)|WAGES % CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS PERIOD|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Percent per annum[t-3]) / 1000000 - 100 - CONSUMER PRICES|64..X CPI %CHG. OVER CORRESPONDING PERIOD OF PREVIOUS YEAR|Belarus|Unknown|Prices (Consumer, Producer Prices)|CPI % CHANGE|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Percent per annum[t]) / 100) 2.4.6. Уравнение: CPI_BE CONSUMER PRICES|64..X CPI %CHG. OVER CORRESPONDING PERIOD OF PREVIOUS YEAR|Belarus|Unknown|Prices (Consumer, Producer Prices)|CPI % CHANGE|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Percent per annum[t] = 2.28328 + PRODUCER OR WHOLESALE PRICES|63.XX WPI/PPI PERCENT CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS PERIOD|Belarus|Average|Prices (Consumer, Producer Prices)|PPI %CHANGE OVER PREV. PERIOD|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Percent per annum[t] * 1.22194 2.4.7. Уравнение: WPI_BE Y = A0 + A1*X1+ A2*X2 где: Y - PRODUCER OR WHOLESALE PRICES|63.XX WPI/PPI PERCENT CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS PERIOD|Belarus|Average|Prices (Consumer, Producer Prices)|PPI %CHANGE OVER PREV. PERIOD|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Percent per annum[t] X1 - PchPoP(NATIONAL CURRENCY PER US$ (PER AVG)|..AF. NC/US$, PERIOD AVERAGE|Belarus|Average|Exchange rates|OFFICIAL RATE|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Национальная валюта за доллар США[t-1]) X2 - DISCOUNT/BANK RATE (END OF PERIOD)|60... DISCOUNT RATE (END OF PERIOD)|Belarus|Stock|Financial Sector|REFINANCING RATE|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Percent per annum[t] Оцененные коэффициенты: Коэффициент Значение t-Статистика Вероятность Стандартная ошибка A1 0,39 4,82 0,00 0,08 A2 0,16 2,72 0,01 0,06 A0 3,44 1,24 0,22 2,76 Статистика: R2 0,47 AdjR2 0,45 DW 1,63 Fstat 24,47 2.4.8. Уравнение: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION_BE PchYoY(Y) = A0 + A1*X1 где: Y - pchYoY(GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION|91F.. GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION|Belarus|Flow|National Accounts|GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION EXPEND.|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Миллиард единиц национальной валюты[t]) X1 - PchYoY(STATEMENT OF SOURCES AND USES OF CASH|c1... Cash receipts from operating activit|Belarus|Flow|IFS Supplement on Monetary and Financial Statistics|CASH RECEIPTS FROM OPERATING ACTIVIT|General Government|Миллиард единиц национальной валюты[t]) Оцененные коэффициенты: Коэффициент Значение t-Статистика Вероятность Стандартная ошибка A1 0,49 4,23 0,01 0,12 A0 -0,50 -0,14 0,89 3,50 Статистика: R2 0,75 AdjR2 0,71 DW 1,95 Fstat 17,87 2.4.9. Уравнение: BUDGET REVENUE (c1)_BE Y = A0 + A1*X1 где: Y - ratioYoY(STATEMENT OF SOURCES AND USES OF CASH|c1... Cash receipts from operating activit|Belarus|Flow|IFS Supplement on Monetary and Financial Statistics|CASH RECEIPTS FROM OPERATING ACTIVIT|General Government|Миллиард единиц национальной валюты[t]) X1 - GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)|99B.. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT|Belarus|Flow|National Accounts|GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Миллиард единиц национальной валюты[t] Оцененные коэффициенты: Коэффициент Значение t-Статистика Вероятность Стандартная ошибка A1 0,45 2,60 0,06 0,17 A0 0,78 3,61 0,02 0,22 Статистика: R2 0,63 AdjR2 0,53 DW 3,30 Fstat 6,74 2.4.10. Уравнение: EMPLOYMENT_BE Y = A0 + A1*X1+ A2*X2 где: Y - ratioPoP(EMPLOYMENT|67E.. EMPLOYMENT|Belarus|Average|Labor Market (Employment, Unemployment, wages and earnings)|EMPLOYMENT (000'S)|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Тысяча на общее число человек[t]) X1 - WAGE RATES OR EARNINGS|65.XX WAGES % CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS PERIOD|Belarus|Average|Labor Market (Employment, Unemployment, wages and earnings)|WAGES % CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS PERIOD|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Percent per annum[t-1] X2 - GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)|99B.. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT|Belarus|Flow|National Accounts|GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Миллиард единиц национальной валюты[t-1] Оцененные коэффициенты: Коэффициент Значение t-Статистика Вероятность Стандартная ошибка A1 0,00 0,11 0,91 0,00 A2 0,02 1,10 0,28 0,01 A0 0,98 64,71 0,00 0,02 Статистика: R2 0,65 AdjR2 0,53 DW 2,13 Fstat 5,06 2.4.11. Уравнение: UNEMPLOYMENT_BE Y = A1*X1+ A2*X2 где: Y - ratioPoP(UNEMPLOYMENT|67C.. UNEMPLOYMENT|Belarus|Average|Labor Market (Employment, Unemployment, wages and earnings)|UNEMPLOYMENT (000'S)|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Тысяча на общее число человек[t]) X1 - (GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)|99B.. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT|Belarus|Flow|National Accounts|GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Миллиард единиц национальной валюты[t] / GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)|99B.. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT|Belarus|Flow|National Accounts|GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Миллиард единиц национальной валюты[t-1] * 100 - CONSUMER PRICES|64..X CPI %CHG. OVER CORRESPONDING PERIOD OF PREVIOUS YEAR|Belarus|Unknown|Prices (Consumer, Producer Prices)|CPI % CHANGE|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Percent per annum[t]) / 100 X2 - EMPLOYMENT|67E.. EMPLOYMENT|Belarus|Average|Labor Market (Employment, Unemployment, wages and earnings)|EMPLOYMENT (000'S)|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Тысяча на общее число человек[t] Оцененные коэффициенты: Коэффициент Значение t-Статистика Вероятность Стандартная ошибка A1 0,03 0,19 0,85 0,14 A2 0,93 6,32 0,00 0,15 Статистика: R2 0,99 AdjR2 0,99 DW 1,13 Fstat 2 230,19 2.4.12. Уравнение: WAGES_BE Y = A0 + A1*X1+ A2*X2+ A3*X3 где: Y - WAGE RATES OR EARNINGS|65.XX WAGES % CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS PERIOD|Belarus|Average|Labor Market (Employment, Unemployment, wages and earnings)|WAGES % CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS PERIOD|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Percent per annum[t] X1 - DISCOUNT/BANK RATE (END OF PERIOD)|60... DISCOUNT RATE (END OF PERIOD)|Belarus|Stock|Financial Sector|REFINANCING RATE|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Percent per annum[t] X2 - PchYoY(GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)|99B.. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT|Belarus|Flow|National Accounts|GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Миллиард единиц национальной валюты[t]) X3 - PRODUCER OR WHOLESALE PRICES|63.XX WPI/PPI PERCENT CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS PERIOD|Belarus|Average|Prices (Consumer, Producer Prices)|PPI %CHANGE OVER PREV. PERIOD|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Percent per annum[t] Оцененные коэффициенты: Коэффициент Значение t-Статистика Вероятность Стандартная ошибка A1 0,02 2,35 0,02 0,01 A2 0,01 3,00 0,00 0,00 A3 0,13 7,20 0,00 0,02 A0 1,81 3,16 0,00 0,57 Статистика: R2 0,82 AdjR2 0,81 DW 2,34 Fstat 95,19 2.4.13. Уравнение: GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION_BE GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION|93E.. GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION|Belarus|Flow|National Accounts|GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Миллиард единиц национальной валюты[t] = ratioYoY(GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)|99B.. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT|Belarus|Flow|National Accounts|GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Миллиард единиц национальной валюты[t-1]) - pchPoP(NATIONAL CURRENCY PER US$ (PER AVG)|..AF. NC/US$, PERIOD AVERAGE|Belarus|Average|Exchange rates|OFFICIAL RATE|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Национальная валюта за доллар США[t]) / 100 2.4.14. Уравнение: INCREASE/DECREASE IN STOCKS_BE Y = A0 + A1*X1+ A2*X2+ A3*X3+ A4*X4 где: Y - INCREASE/DECREASE(-) IN STOCKS OR CHANGES IN INVENTORIES|93I.. INCREASE/DECREASE(-)IN STOCKS|Belarus|Flow|National Accounts|CHANGES IN INVENTORIES|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Миллиард единиц национальной валюты[t] X1 - DiffPoP(NATIONAL CURRENCY PER US$ (PER AVG)|..AF. NC/US$, PERIOD AVERAGE|Belarus|Average|Exchange rates|OFFICIAL RATE|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Национальная валюта за доллар США[t]) X2 - DiffPoP(GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)|99B.. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT|Belarus|Flow|National Accounts|GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Миллиард единиц национальной валюты[t]) X3 - PchPoP(TRADE PRICE INDICES|70A.. PETROLEUM|World|Average|Trade|0FFICIAL RATE|Non-IMF publications|Index, 2005 = 100[t]) X4 - PchPoP(TRADE PRICE INDICES|Natural gas, Russian gas at the border in Germany|World|Average|Trade|0FFICIAL RATE|Non-IMF publications|Доллар за тысячу кубических метров [t]) Оцененные коэффициенты: Коэффициент Значение t-Статистика Вероятность Стандартная ошибка A1 -0,13 -0,23 0,82 0,56 A2 0,18 5,89 0,00 0,03 A3 -12,68 -3,33 0,00 3,80 A4 12,17 2,89 0,01 4,22 A0 151,60 2,43 0,02 62,39 Статистика: R2 0,49 AdjR2 0,45 DW 1,04 Fstat 12,93 2.4.15. Уравнение: GDP VOLUME_BE GDP Volume Measures|99BPX GDP VOLUME % CHANGE|Belarus|Unknown|IFS Supplement on Monetary and Financial Statistics|GDP VOLUME % CHANGE|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Percent per annum[t] = pchYoY(GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)|99B.. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT|Belarus|Flow|National Accounts|GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Миллиард единиц национальной валюты[t]) - CONSUMER PRICES|64..X CPI %CHG. OVER CORRESPONDING PERIOD OF PREVIOUS YEAR|Belarus|Unknown|Prices (Consumer, Producer Prices)|CPI % CHANGE|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Percent per annum[t] 2.4.16. Уравнение: M2_BE QUASI-MONEY|35L.. MONEY PLUS QUASI-MONEY|Belarus|Stock|Financial Sector|MONEY PLUS QUASI-MONEY|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Миллиард единиц национальной валюты[t] = 0.4618 + 0.1484 * DISCOUNT/BANK RATE (END OF PERIOD)|60... DISCOUNT RATE (END OF PERIOD)|Belarus|Stock|Financial Sector|REFINANCING RATE|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Percent per annum[t] + 0.1083 * CONSUMER PRICES|64..X CPI %CHG. OVER CORRESPONDING PERIOD OF PREVIOUS YEAR|Belarus|Unknown|Prices (Consumer, Producer Prices)|CPI % CHANGE|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Percent per annum[t] + 0.2309 * GDP Volume Measures|99BPX GDP VOLUME % CHANGE|Belarus|Unknown|IFS Supplement on Monetary and Financial Statistics|GDP VOLUME % CHANGE|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Percent per annum[t] - 0.1747 * pchYoY(NATIONAL CURRENCY PER US$ (PER AVG)|..AF. NC/US$, PERIOD AVERAGE|Belarus|Average|Exchange rates|OFFICIAL RATE|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Национальная валюта за доллар США[t]) 2.5. Макромодель Казастана 2.5.1. Уравнение: GDP_KZ Y = A0 + A1*X1+ A2*X2+ A3*X3+ A4*X4+ A5*X5+ A6*X6 где: Y - GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)|99B.. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT|Kazakhstan|Flow|National Accounts|GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Миллиард единиц национальной валюты[t] X1 - EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES|90C.. EXPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES|Kazakhstan|Flow|National Accounts|EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Миллиард единиц национальной валюты[t] X2 - IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES|98C.. IMPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES|Kazakhstan|Flow|National Accounts|IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Миллиард единиц национальной валюты[t] X3 - GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION|91F.. GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION|Kazakhstan|Flow|National Accounts|GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION EXPEND.|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Миллиард единиц национальной валюты[t] X4 - GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION|93E.. GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION|Kazakhstan|Flow|National Accounts|GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Миллиард единиц национальной валюты[t] X5 - INCREASE/DECREASE(-) IN STOCKS OR CHANGES IN INVENTORIES|93I.. INCREASE/DECREASE(-)IN STOCKS|Kazakhstan|Flow|National Accounts|CHANGES IN INVENTORIES|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Миллиард единиц национальной валюты[t] X6 - PRIVATE CONS.OR HH CONS. EXPEND. INCLU. NPI SERV HH|96F.. PRIVATE CONSUMPTION|Kazakhstan|Flow|National Accounts|HOUSEH.CONS.EXPEND.,INCL.NPISHS|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Миллиард единиц национальной валюты[t] Оцененные коэффициенты: Коэффициент Значение t-Статистика Вероятность Стандартная ошибка A1 1,00 376 064,19 0,00 0,00 A2 -1,00 -128 435,97 0,00 0,00 A3 1,00 71 503,66 0,00 0,00 A4 1,00 212 551,65 0,00 0,00 A5 1,00 135 484,22 0,00 0,00 A6 1,00 264 717,91 0,00 0,00 A0 0,00 -0,97 0,34 0,00 Статистика: R2 1,00 AdjR2 1,00 DW 1,70 Fstat 2 210 779 799 397,99 2.5.2. Уравнение: EXPORT_KZ Y = A0 + A1*X1+ A2*X2+ A3*X3 где: Y - ratioPoP(EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES|90C.. EXPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES|Kazakhstan|Flow|National Accounts|EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Миллиард единиц национальной валюты[t]) X1 - TRADE PRICE INDICES|70A.. PETROLEUM|World|Average|Trade|0FFICIAL RATE|Non-IMF publications|Index, 2005 = 100[t] X2 - NATIONAL CURRENCY PER US$ (PER AVG)|..AF. NC/US$, PERIOD AVERAGE|Kazakhstan|Average|Exchange rates|OFFICIAL RATE|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Национальная валюта за доллар США[t] X3 - GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)|99B.. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT|Kazakhstan|Flow|National Accounts|GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)|International Financial Statistics (IFS)|Миллиард единиц национальной валюты[t] |
