Волков много, а мяса мало
Под таким заголовком я решил написать статью, так как эта древняя китайская пословица лучше всего подходит под описание событий, происходящих в глобальной экономике и на финансовых рынках. Особенно после той эйфории, в которой пребывали мировые рынки сразу после решения китайских властей освободить курс юаня от привязки к доллару.
В прошлый раз мы с вами расстались на фоне тревожной обстановки (если помните, речь шла чуть ли не о начале торговой войны между Пекином и Вашингтоном из-за валютного вопроса). Теперь, когда китайский Центробанк провозгласил курс на либерализацию валютного режима, казалось бы, можно вздохнуть с облегчением. Мне бы, конечно, хотелось выдать желаемое за действительное, но, к сожалению, не могу. Отчасти решение Народного банка Китая можно назвать политическим, так как ни у кого не было желания устраивать скандал в преддверии саммита G20 в Торонто. Китай провозгласил курс, направленный на более гибкое ценообразование своей валюты, но это вовсе не означает, что юань будет расти к доллару (на что рассчитывают американцы). Можно даже сказать, что китайцы одержали маленькую тактическую победу. Теперь курс юаня будет определяться на основе спроса и предложения, так что трудно будет «докапываться» до китайцев, обвиняя их в манипулировании валютой. Но дело даже не в этом. Дело вовсе не в юане, а в слишком большом количестве денег в мировой финансовой системе. Ведь многие думают, что такой огромный уровень ликвидности проявился только сейчас, в период кризиса. Это не так.
Еще несколько лет назад, в самом начале 2000-х, мировые центробанки тоже печатали деньги. Тогда тоже был кризис. Правда, не столь грандиозный, как сейчас. Но политики всегда боялись любого кризиса, хотя в условиях потребительской модели современной экономики это явление – просто неизбежная составная часть системы. За 10 лет (начиная с 1999 г.) совокупная стоимость активов на планете Земля возросла с 95 трлн. долларов, до… 940 триллионов! То есть увеличилась в 10 раз. Соответственно, в несколько раз возросла и доля финансового сектора в структуре мировой экономики. Ведь такую махину активов без финансистов обслужить невозможно. По крайней мере эту мысль внушили банкиры своим политикам.
Вот и получается, что не Китай создает дисбаланс в мировой экономике. а чересчур большое количество лишних, мало чем обеспеченных денег и лишних, занимающихся только спекуляциями банков. Китай в данном случае вообще ни при чем. Он такая же жертва этого финансового фантома, как и мы с вами.
Text 4.
Mexico cars: Winners and losers
1. Give your views of the ideas before reading the Text :
a) Why is the US one of the main import partners of Mexico ?
b) Explain , why many European and Asian auto parts suppliers have moved to Mexico . Look up evidence in different references.
2. Read the Text and answer the questions below :
Mexico’s auto production gains are looking increasingly like the US and Canada’s losses.
Mexico's vehicle-makers and suppliers are flying high. 2010 turned out to be a record year thanks to soaring exports while international auto companies continue to make new investments there, especially in the strategically-important area of small and fuel-efficient vehicles and components. Indeed, Mexico is starting to be seen as stealing investment, jobs and production directly from the US and Canada, its partners within the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
A record number of light vehicles were built in Mexico last year, according to data recently released by the Mexican Automobile Industry Association (AMIA). Some 2.26m new cars and light commercial vehicles (LCVs) were produced in 2010. That was the country’s highest-ever light vehicle output and a 50% increase on 2009’s production of 1.51m units.
The industry’s turnaround is a relief after the disaster of 2009, when vehicle production crashed by almost 30% year-on-year. Four-fifths of overall Mexican production is exported north of the border to the US and so as US demand collapsed two years ago, so did Mexican production.
But just as the US credit crunch and recession in 2008 dragged Mexican industry down, now a recovering US market is pulling it back up. Mexican light vehicle exports soared by 52% to 1.86m vehicles in 2010, AMIA said, which was also a record high. In all, 1.28m vehicles, or 69% of total exports, were US-bound, compared with 879,000 in 2009. That means that Mexican-built cars accounted for 11% of all cars sold in the US last year.
Another cause for celebration is the news that General Motors of the US has earmarked US$540m to build a new range of fuel-efficient engines at its one of its five existing production facilities there. Once again, demand for the new engines, which will be the 1.6 litre and 1.8 litre I4 units, is coming from the recovering US market.
GM’s decision highlights a trend that promises to help the country’s vehicle industry greatly in coming years, namely Mexico's emerging specialisation in building small and fuel-efficient cars, engines and other components. Ford and GM have already named Mexico as their North American production hub for compact cars. Nissan of Japan builds is Versa subcompact passenger car in Mexico and Ford builds the North American version of the Fiesta in the country. While Chrysler used to build the PT Cruiser there, now it uses that factory to produce one of the smallest and most fuel-efficient cars in North America – the Fiat 500.
Where OEMs invest, so do suppliers. At the end of 2010, TI Automotive of the US inaugurated a new fuel tank systems factory in Mexico. The factory produces low-emission, plastic fuel tanks, pumps and modules for the Nissan Micra, Note and Versa. It is TI Automotive’s sixth Mexican manufacturing location.
It is clear that Mexico’s automotive industry is currently enjoying by far the strongest recovery of the three NAFTA countries. In 2010, Mexico produced more vehicles than Canada for the third year in a row and contributed a record 18.9% high of North American vehicle production. In addition, several global vehicle manufacturers and suppliers have recently announced new investments in the country.
But the news may not be all positive. The foreign investment Mexico is attracting is strengthening the Mexican economy, but it is also driving up the value of the peso. If the Mexican currency carries on rising, this could affect demand for Mexican exports, which started to happen during the crisis year of 2009.
Another concern is that some of Mexico's new auto investment has been at the expense of its NAFTA counterparts. For example, in 2001, Canadian-based supplier Magna operated nine factories in Mexico. Today, that figure stands at 29. But between 2005 and 2010, Magna closed 48 factories in Canada and the US at the cost of thousands of jobs.
At the recent Detroit Motor Show, protesters turned up to denounce the way that NAFTA has helped to shift US auto industry jobs abroad. Though NAFTA itself is unlikely to be rewritten, the political pressures are making themselves felt in other ongoing trade negotiations, including those between the US and South Korea, as well as between Canada and the EU.
Fortunately for Mexico, GM's public offering last year reduced the government's stake in the carmaker, and thereby insulated GM from some of the political pressure. And other indicators look good. If oil prices continue to rise as they have been, then the popularity of small cars in North America will continue to grow. This will give Mexico yet another advantage over rival locations such as Canada, whose auto production is still focused on large passenger cars and MPVs.
Why is the year of 2010 called a record year by the author of the article ?
How can you comment on the words from the article that ‘ Mexico is starting to be seen as stealing investment , jobs , and production… ‘ ?
What were the consequences of the US crisis in 2008 for Mexico ?
How does the recovering US market influence the Mexican economy ?
What economic problems are there in Mexico’s economy now ?
Why is the Mexican automotive industry in more advantageous position than its rivals?
How do oil prices influence the situation in the auto industry ?
3. Find the English matches for the following Russian words :
стремительно растущий ; малолитражный ; ограничение кредитования ; ослаблять ; объяснять , отчитываться ; в ущерб , за счет ; содействовать , способствовать .
4. Match the following English words and combinations with their Russian equivalents :
output – crash – soar – earmark – facilities – highlight – emerging – fuel tank – ongoing
- делать акцент
-перспективный
- топливная цистерна
- постоянный . непрерывный
- выделить ( деньги , средства )
- материальная база
- повыситься
- производительная мощность
- крах , банкротство
5. Explain in your own words the meaning of the collocations given below and translate them into Russian :
- the industry’s turnaround
- pull the industry back up
- US bound
- production hub
6. Find the words corresponding to the definitions given below :
1. a thing that is used for transporting people or goods from one place to another, such as a car or lorry/truck ;
2. let somebody/something come out of a place where they have been kept or trapped ;
3. the line that divides two countries or areas; the land near this line ;
4. buildings, services, equipment, etc. that are provided for a particular purpose ;
5. formal discussion between people who are trying to reach an agreement;
6. a thing that helps you to be better or more successful than other people .
7. Make a report basing on the statistics which follow :
Global production of motorvehicles (cars and commercial vehicles )
Year
|
Production
|
Change
|
1997
|
52,987,000
|
|
1998
|
57,987,000
|
-2.70%
|
1999
|
56,258,892
|
2.98%
|
2000
|
58,374,162
|
3.80%
|
2001
|
56,304,925
|
-3.50%
|
2002
|
58,994,318
|
4.80%
|
2003
|
60,663,225
|
2.80%
|
2004
|
64,496,220
|
6.30%
|
2005
|
66,482,439
|
3.10%
|
2006
|
69,222,975
|
4.10%
|
2007
|
73,266,061
|
5.80%
|
2008
|
70,520,493
|
-3.70%
|
2009
|
60,986,985
|
-13.50%
|
2010
|
77,857,705
|
26.00%
|
|
8. Render the following text . Sum all the main points of an article, providing sufficient detail to support the main ideas. The summary has to cover the main points clearly in a limited space and must also follow an organized structure.
|
